Who Wins Semi Finals of the Final Four?

Duke        West Virginia       Michigan State       Butler        NCAA Bracket      Final 4 History

With #1 playing #2, Duke versus West Virginia, and #5 against #5, Michigan State versus Butler you could ask for a more evenly matched semi-final round in the Final Four of the NCAA National Basketball Championship being played this weekend in Indianapolis.  But that being said, who wins tonight and goes on to play in the championship game on Monday night?  Let's look at each matchup.

Butler (32-4) is on a 24 game winning streak that dates back to 2009 before Christmas, their record is the third best in the country and Brad Stevens is 88-14 nearing the end of his third season as a Head Coach.  Butler plays possession basketball and has lost 3 of its 4 ball games when teams, Georgetown, Minnesota and UAB did not allow Butler to play control basketball and pushed the game, allowing the winning teams to gain more possessions than Butler.  In its fourth loss to Clemson, Butler was able to establish a half court game, but failed to shoot the ball well and could not stop Clemson from penetrating the paint and were out rebounded on the offensive glass late in the game.  The defensive minded Butler Bulldogs live up to their mascot title, as they guard the ball extremely well and do not allow its opponents to get into fast transition games.  They are very efficient with its possessions and rarely take bad shots.  In four tournament games this year, the Bulldogs have not allowed a team to score 60 points.  They are very comfortable playing games in the 50's, but while holding their opponents to under 60 points, Butler has scored 77, 63 twice and slipped by Murray State 54-52.  As a disciplined half court team, Butler rebounds the ball extremely well and appears as fundamentally prepared as any team in America.  To beat Butler, a team will need to increase tempo and try to beat the set defense down the floor and create offensive advantages.  Force the actions and don't fall into the slow half court tempo.  And by all means, rebound the ball and reduce the second chance opportunities for a team that scores at a high rate during normal single possessions.

Michigan State (28-8), the only returning team from last year's Final Four, is coached by Tom Izzo, that alone is a notable team advantage, now considered one of the best college coaches in the country.  During the regular season the team was somewhat inconsistent, but only one loss in the eight came from a team not playing in the field of 64, Illinois.  The Spartans have played a number of close games this year and appear to be playing their best basketball of the season after an overtime loss (72-67) to Minnesota to end their conference season.  Coach Izzo's group attacks the offensive glass, and plays the game extremely aggressive.  Izzo will play possession games at times using timeout possessions to execute set plays for baskets more often than most teams in the country.  The Spartans have had some turnover problems this year and will need to protect the ball, rebound and attempt to play the game at their pace which somewhat up tempo, creating baskets in transition.  Statistics reveal that the Spartans rebound approximately 40% of their misses, so poor shooting does not always play against MSU, but they will have to defend the ball consistently for 25-30 seconds per Butler possession to have a chance to move on to the Finals.

Duke (33-5) was considered the weakest of the #1 seeds in the tournament, but has been playing great basketball with a real emphasis on rebounding.  Once Coach Mike Krzyzewski was able to motivate Brian Zoubek to become a presence on the boards, Duke has been able to allow its perimeter dominating game to open the floor and its length is a advantage factor with Miles and Mason Plumlee at 6'10", Zoubek at 7'1" and high flying Lance Thomas now is allowed to gain fromthe offensive board volley ball match generated by the Duke size.  Duke then has the scoring trio of Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, who is struggling in post season, along with Jon Scheyer.  Defensively Duke is aggressive on the perimeter, relying on size to cover the penetration and post entry.  Duke has really cruised through the tournament and even dominated the final five minutes of a close Baylor game by just pounding the glass and then shooting with confidence from the perimeter down the stretch.  Smith is playing with an emotional and spiritual-like motivation and his deceased father, Derek Smith led a Louisville team to the Final Four 30 years ago and Smith has dedicated this tournament to his late father.  Coach K is the most experienced Final Four coach in the mix of all four high profile coaches, which includes the new "young gun" Brad Stevens of Butler.  Duke will have to guard against an early slump and allowing an early early leads by their opponent.  If Dukes kick out threes are falling they will be hard to beat, along with second chance possessions and scoring opportunities.

West Virginia (31-6) Coached by Bob Huggins, the controversial coach who has been criticized for low graduation rates, a demanding practice philosophy and a sarcastic demeanor seems to irk the general sports fan.  The result a physical and athletic basketball team that plays an aggressive 1-3-1 matching defense and alternating in your face man to man schemes.  The Mountaineers are returning to the Final Four for the first time since 1959, when a Jerry West led West Virginia team lost in the finals to California 71-70 .  This team has the son of Jerry West, Jonnie on the roster and believes they are playing this weekend for the National Championship in representation of the entire state of West Virginia.  It will take more than inspiration and nostalgia to get to the championship game on Monday.  Coach Huggins' team will have to play their physical style on defense and on the glass.  They will have to defend the perimeter and contest all kick outs and limit the second chance opportunities of their opponent.  WV needs to push the ball and not allow their contenders to establish defensive rhythm often, as WV scores more proficiently when attacking early and not getting late into their shot clock.  The Mountaineers have suffered from high turnover games and have survived some through sheer athleticism, but in the Final Four they will need to protect the ball and try to emerge with more possessions than their opponent.

Both games will be close, and as stated the semis offer the best personnel and team playing styles, in regards to match ups, and should prove to be close games.  Dukes length appears to bed the advantage, along with its perimeter shooting threats, but WV has a very skilled team, even with injuries they have depth, but no match for the length, late game second chances should give Duke the 2 point winning advantage, plus there is always Coach K in his 11th Final Hour.  In the early game you will see two teams that really match up well from position to position, but Coach Izzo has been able to survive without his starting point guard and key big play shooter, as others have stepped up cover the loss, but the young coach of Butler may look like a kid, but his 88-14 record is nothing to kid about, he is a true student of the game and has his team playing the most efficient and consistent basketball in the tournament, next to Duke.  Butler should shock the country and please the home crowd with a close 4 point victory over the future "Hall of Famer" and give Coach Stevens the spotlight going into Monday's Championship game.  Both games are really to close to call, but enjoy the ride, but expect a Duke versus Butler National Championship game on Monday night.  

More Parity, Lack Of Dominance Lower Seeds Going Home

NCAA Brackets

Regardless of the argument parity, dominance, luck, pairings, seedings or officiating, this year's NCAA Basketball Tournament has witnessed the elimination of several Lower Seeds early and recently, with only one #1 seed, Duke,  remaining potentially for the Final Four.  Michigan State is the only team still in the dance from last year's final four, while storied programs like defending national champion North Carolina are in the NIT this year, with UConn, UCLA, Memphis, Illinois, Cincinnati and NC State.

This year in round one, #14 Ohio U wins over #3 Georgetown, #13 Murray State beats #4 Vanderbilt, #11 Washington beats #6 Marquette, then three # 10's Missouri, St. Mary's and Georgia Tech notch wins against #7's Clemson, Richmond and Oklahoma State, respectively.  So if those upsets weren't enough to convince you of a national change, then Round Two offered #9 Northern Iowa over Championship favorite, #1 Kansas, #12 St. Mary's upsets #2 Villanova and #12 Cornell over #4 Wisconsin.

Opponents to the belief in parity in college basketball strongly recommended that the Cinderella show is over and the "Sweet Sixteen" would separate the strong teams from those good to average teams surviving on the heels of bad one-game play by the beaten lower seeds.   #12 Cornell was no match for #1 Kentucky, with it's young NBA talented roster and #12 St. Mary's caught #3 Baylor bringing their "A" and lost while #11 Washington was not physical enough for #2 West Virginia, but #5 Butler was up to the task in upsetting #1 Syracuse, #6 Tennessee took out #2 Ohio State.  As the "Elite Eight" was paired, #2 Kansas State could not hold off #5 Butler, as Butler wins and returns home as the first designated Final Four participant.  #2 West Virginia confirmed the lack of dominance by any team with a solid win against #1 Kentucky for the second spot in the Final Four.

If seedings are a description of the best teams for the current season, the first 4 seedings should represent the top 16 teams in the field of 64 (65 with the play-in game).  Therefore it would stand to reason that any wins by teams seeded below # 4 could be considered an upset or at least a win by a less favored opponent. Currently with one game remaining in the "Elite Eight," #1 Duke against #3 Baylor, the "Sweet Sixteen" began with 8 teams seeded in the top four spots, with tow #5's and #2 already in the Final Four, with a #1 or #3 pending the results of the Duke/Baylor matchup.  The combination of this year's victories, with the number of Marquee programs in the NIT, college basketball has developed a product that offers competitive games by a volume of teams from around the country, making college basketball possibly one of the most exciting games in competitive athletics currently.  As far as parity or lack of dominance, no more than two top ten teams from the final regular season rankings will play in the final four, should Duke win later this afternoon. 

LRMC Computer Rankings

Another Shinning Moment For Mid Majors and Higher Seeds

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The Sweet Sixteen is primarily the home of the Power Conferences in previous years.  In most seasons the Sweet Sixteen offers an average of one and a half Mid Major schools in the field of 16.  But this year the parity that many analyst have been touting and debating is beginning to surface as five Mid Majors, #5 Butler, #12 Cornell, #9 Northern Iowa, #10 St Mary's and #6 Xavier enter week two participating in the Sweet Sixteen.  In all the group of 16 represents a total of 11 conferences, seedings of one each 9-12, two 5 and 6 seeds, one 3 and 4 to go with the three 1's and 2's.

The tournament is set up for a potential Cinderella finish for someone.  While #1 Duke has the appearance of a favorable portion of the bracket, #4 Purdue, #3 Baylor and #10 St. Mary's each bring elements to eventual and potential meetings that could challenge Duke Final Four march.  The real intrigue matchup is  in the East Region where #1 Kentucky will compete against the best three-point shooting team in the country, #12 Cornell, who has literally destroyed each of it's higher ranked opponents, #5 Temple and #4 Wisconsin.  If Kentucky somehow is relegated to a half court game, this could be the next huge upset of the NCAA Tournament.  #2 West Virginia should stop the surprising run of #11 Washington, but the PAC 10 was down and nobody expected any noise from the teams in this conference, but that's why you play the games.  The favorable predictions would land #1 vs #2, UK against WVA, but an unprecedented #11 versus #12 is not out of the realm of possibilities, if Washington and Cornell believe in miracles or dreams.  

Most would believe that #1 Syracuse has too many weapons for #5 Butler, however Butler is battle tested and has become comfortable in postseason so the Orangemen will need to bring their "A" game to assure a show down with #2 Kansas State, which has to get by Mid-Major powerhouse, Xavier, another battle tested program that seems to punch their ticket every year as a team ready to audition for the "One Shinning Moment".  #5 Michigan State is the only team returning from last year's final four, but as if the injury to Kalin Lucas was not enough, the Spartans will have to enter this game without its' floor leader and against the team, #9 Northern Iowa, that derailed the championship plans of the top number one program, Kansas, on Sunday afternoon.  If N. Iowa can refocus its energy and emotions they may be in the best position to advance to the Elite Eight with a chance to meet the winner of the #2 Ohio State versus #6 Tennessee.  This game could be the most physical of the eight games played in the "Sweet Sixteen".

The debate has begun, is parity good for the sport or is it a problem to have early post season upsets remove higher seeds from the tournament.  The question is how good is it for the sport to have "David and Goliath" reenacted on the basketball court, Cinderella stepping deeper into the dance, the Nerd standing up against the Bully and improbable Dreams coming True.  This year's NCAA Basketball Tournament is a tribute to all hard working Americans, having the chance to make the impossible, possible and the unthinkable a reality.  Better known as "The American Dream", it is what movies such as "Hoosiers" is all about, making heros of the unknowns and champions of the underdog.  For "One Shinning Moment" you just have to be the best team for a game not the entire season.

Mid Majors Make Major Statement In Tournament

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The Mid Major Conferences made major statements in the first round, certifying that they belong.  With the field of 65 represented mostly by the 6 power conferences in America, the Big East, ACC, SEC, Pac 10, Big 10 and Big 12.  It was the Ivy League, OVC, A10, Horizon, MVC, MAC, MWC, WCC and Colonial that was stealing headlines and making the key plays down the stretch to gain the attention of college basketball fans around the bars, pubs, offices, living rooms and internet.  The Mid Major conferences won 11 of the 32 (8 Thursday and 3 Friday) opening round games in this year's NCAA Basketball Tournament.  At a glance some would say that's a reasonable percentage until you recognize that there are 31 conference, 25 mid-majors and 6 power conferences.  Of the field of 65, there are 6 automatic bids to power conferences and 25 automatic bids to the mid-major schools, after that the at-large bids were given to 8 other mid-major conferences.  The 6 power conferences received the remaining or additional 26 bids (Big East 7, Big 12 6, ACC 5, Big 10 4, SEC 3 & PAC 10 1).

With all the discussions about the teams that were snuffed from primarily power conferences, the elite of these conferences had all they could handle with the elites of the mid-major leagues.  Not to mention a few near misses in the upset category by Robert Morris a 15 seed, taking 2 seed Villanova to OT and 4 seed Wisconsin needing heroics late in the ball game to salvage a 53-49 nail bitter against Wofford, a 13 seed, with less than 2000 students.

The first round would end with victories by a 14 Seed Ohio University, the lone participant from the MAC over #3 Georgetown (Big East), #13 Murray State of the OVC over #4 Vanderbilt (SEC),  #12 Cornell from the Ivy League defeating Temple of the A10, the Colonial's only entry, #11 Old Dominion was victorious over #5 Notre Dame (Big East), #10 St. Mary's of the WCC shocked #7 Richmond of the A10 to round out the mid-major upsets in round one.  In all 9 mid-major or lesser conferences, as some would say, would be responsible for over a third of the first round wins, 11.

Next, round two, which now has 16 games deciding the field of 16 for next week's count down, "The Sweet 16", which offers teams advancement towards the ultimate goal, The Final Four, the final stage for College Basketball's National Championship.  10 of 16 games involve at least one mid-major school, which leaves increased potential in at least one, if not several mid-major teams in the "Sweet Sixteen".

Teams to watch, #12 Cornell is long, can shoot, defend and control the pace of a game.  #4 Wisconsin just got by Wofford of the Southern Conference, don't know if they can struggle against the elite squad from the Ivy League, a league that hasn't won a NCAA tournament game until Thursday, in twelve years.  Tennessee may match up better with the Ohio transition game, but can they survive the kind of shooting this team dished out against #3 Georgetown on Thursday in the biggest shocker so far in the tournament.  Then there is #10 St. Mary's who has been catching analysts eyes gradually as the season came to an end, playing against #2 Villanova, a "Jekyl & Hyde" elite team that is ripe for the Cinderella upset, with their late season slump.  #5 Butler is a really good team, but no one realizes yet how good the #13 Murray State club plays, even after their thriller against #4 Vanderbilt.  Look for Murray State to be in the filed of 16 next week.  In another battle of two mid-majors, #11 ODU will have their hands full with #3 Baylor, but proved what they can do with a very poised victory against #6 Notre Dame in  round one, should be a very competitive contest.  #9 Northern Iowa is in the must see position, playing the top #1 Kansas, after a convincing victory over a talented #8UNLV.  #8 California can pound and shoot with physical teams, and defends the perimeter well, but this is #1 Duke, a disciplined ball club playing its' best basketball late in the season, appears to be the least of the likely upsets, but this is the search for "One Shining Moment.  #8 Gonzaga will try to take advantage of the #1 Syracuse, that recently lost in the opening round of the Big East Tournament and placed the "curse" of first round tourney losses.  No team has ever lost the opening game of their conference tournament and gone on to win the National Championship, that being said,  Syracuse sits in the right line of sight for being shot out of the picture by a mid-major.  #9 Wake Forest will not blow anyone but they are capable of staying around to steal a game against any team in the field, as they try to end the dream season for the #1 Kentucky.   The parity in college basketball is evident and the mid-majors are maximizing their opportunities to display their talent and skills and this dance is still up for grabs, even if the President of the United States has named the winner, the NCAA says we have to play the games to see who really will live that "One Shinning Moment".

Late Collapse or Late Surge Bama Wins 68-63

Game Stats

Who gets the credit for Alabama's (17-14) second "come from behind" victory against the South Carolina Gamecocks after trailing by 18 points with just over 11 minutes remaining in the ballgame?  Initially you have to credit Alabama Head Coach Anthony Grant for keeping his team motivated to play with confidence and efficiency down the stretch outscoring the Gamecocks 32-9 from the 11:39 mark to stun South Carolina (15-16) for the second time in 8 days.  Then there was Senior Guard Mikhail Torrance who scored 17 points on 5-11 shooting and Junior Forward Justin Knox who added 16 points on 5-9 accuracy.  After shooting 41% (15-36) in the first half, South Carolina was held to 8-27 shooting for 29.6%.  This was a tail of two halves as Alabama shot 50% (13-26) in the second half following a dismal 30% in the opening half.  In the most significant stretch from 11:18 remaining to 9:21 Alabama scored 10 unanswered points before a 30-second timeout was called and by then the momentum had completely shifted and the game was on a complete reverse spiral for Head Coach Darrin Horn, who had no answer for Grant's confident team, as the Tide continued to roll, allowing only one South Carolina field goal in the final 11 minutes and 39 seconds, a three-pointer by Ramon Galloway with 1:17 to play, shortly after the Crimson Tide had established a 62-59 lead, to tie at 62-62, but the Cocks would only get a single free throw from Devan Downey who likely ends his college career  with 21 points in a losing effort and no post season play.  Downey would experience his first and only missed free throw (6-7) with 18 seconds leaving the score 64-63 in favor of Bama.

In the end, South Carolina just fell completely apart as a team and appeared like a herd of deer in spot lights, while the Tide never looked like a team trailing by as much as 18 points deep in the final half.  South Carolina also led at the half 38-27.  The loss would eventually taint a marvelous game on the boards by Lakeem Jackson who finished with 14 rebounds (10 offensive) to go with his 9 points, and efficient shooting by Ramon Galloway 3-4 from the field (2-2 from 3) and 6-8 from the line.  And would watch Senior Guard Brandis Raley-Ross go scoreless (0-7) in 32 minutes on the floor. Junior Forward Sam Muldrow would finish with 13 points, all scored in the first half.  Muldrow's 3 second half shot attempts would all come from the perimeter.  

South Carolina will have all summer to wonder what could have been had they closed the game with less long jump shots and more interior play, even with the guards as they shot 70% (14-20) from the free throw line, but vacated the effort to penetrate and keep the pressure on the Crimson Tide.  They will also want to question not packing the zone and forcing the Tide to complete the run with some perimeter play.  Grant's two and three man half court schemes created passing lanes for cutters and isolation for players to penetrate the slow rotating defense of South Carolina during the comeback run.  The Cocks had little gas down the stretch with the limited use of the bench in the ball game.  Austin Steed played only one minute in the ball game.

So as the buzzer sounds, is it poor shooting, poor defense or great scoring and great defense.  Is it poor coaching or great coaching?  What we do know is that there is someone to congratulate and someone to criticize for this great Alabama victory and this disappointing loss by South Carolina.

Downey Ignites Upset In Nashville

Final Stats       SEC Tourney Bracket

South Carolina (15-15, 6-10)  needed Devan Downey to have a big day to have any chance to win at Vanderbilt (23-7, 12-4).  And big game he had, scoring 26 points, 22 in the second half to ignite a come from behind victory over the #13 Vanderbilt Commodores.  Vandy's loss to Kentucky was their lone blemish at home until the Gamecocks rallied behind Downey to record a 77-73 victory in Nashville.  

This victory comes at the right time, as the Cocks will return to Nashville to open SEC tournament play Thursday.  Downey was not alone in the scoring as Sam Muldrow scored 20 points to go with 9 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 steals.  Downey leading the league in scoring and steals, added a couple of steals in this contest, along with one big steal and score during his second half highlight run.  Downey struggled in the first half shooting 2-9 for 4 points.  With USC trailing 35-27 at the half, and trailing by 9 points with just over 9 minutes to play in the ball game, Downey went on a scoring flurry hitting back to back threes and the run, comeback and 50-point second half was ignited.  South Carolina built a 7 point lead in about 4 minutes with a little over 5 minutes to go before Vandy tied the game at 69-69 with just under two minutes to play.  But the Gamecocks were more like "Fighting Gamecocks", as they could see the kill in sight and denied the host team and crowd the chance to regain control of the game.  Downey would come down and immediately hit a three and give the visitors the lead for good.

The game would wind down with Head Coach John Stallings' team cutting the lead to 2 points, but South Carolina would make free throws down the stretch to preserve the victory.  South Carolina locks up the #5 seed and will likely play Auburn or Alabama in the opening round of the SEC Tournament.

Other contributing factors in the game would be Muldrow, scoring 13 points in the first half, and Lakeem Jackson's first half penetration and scoring in the paint.  Darrin Horn's ball club would play physical throughout the game, which led to USC out rebounding the taller Commodores 29-24 (9-4 offensive).    In the earlier meeting won by Vandy, USC was out rebounded 39-24.  Horn never stopped coaching, and obviously the team kept believing and executing, and when Downey began scoring the Commodores went cold and appeared "shell-shocked" by the Downey scoring outburst.  Vanderbilt Senior Jermaine Beal would see his senior day and 21 point, 8 rebound, 2 assist performance tainted by  Downey and company.  A.J. Ogilvy added 15 points and Jeffrey Taylor 13 for Vandy.

South Carolina's Season Near The End

Game Notes

South Carolina (14-15, 5-10) travels into Nashville on a six game (1-7 over the last eight games) losing streak that will place the Gamecocks in a disappointing regular season finish unless they can find a way to upset the Commodores in the regular season finale.  #19 Vanderbilt (23-6, 12-3) is 14-1 at home losing only to the Kentucky Wildcats this season.  South Carolina will need a victory in Nashville and a couple of wins in the SEC tournament to extend the season.  Vanderbilt has a size advantage and recorded a severe rebounding advantage in the earlier meeting when Head Coach John Stallings' team out rebounded the Gamecocks 39-24 and shot better than 60%, with many of those shots around the basket.

South Carolina Head Coach Darrin Horn must find a way to get more post presence and board work to have a chance playing in Memorial Arena on Saturday.  South Carolina has been able to win only one game on the road this year in the SEC, which is their lone road victory of the season on a team's home floor.

This game may very well be about pride and resilience as the Gamecocks are on the verge of recording a losing season similar to the final two seasons of Dave Odom, former head coach at 14-16 and 14-18 respectively.

The season, with the loss of Dominique Archie and Mike Holmes, has become a devastating end to the career of Devan Downey, who was hoping to lead his team into the NCAA tournament in his final year.  Downey, a candidate for many individual accolades, wanted to end his college career playing in the NCAA tournament a feat he has never experienced during his journey from Cincinnati to South Carolina after a one year all freshman season with the Bearcats.  Downey has given his entire arsenal of offense in an attempt to carry a team that lacked offensive weapons, but his efforts fell short as the conference season prevailed and teams found ways to neutralize the performance and disruption of Downey's multi-faceted scoring.  It appears Devan will have to settle for personal accolades and recognitions for his body of work at South Carolina.

South Carolina will have to rely on a miracle season end to see post season play.  A really disappointing situation after a season that started with so much promise.